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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.23%, Highest Since 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% Friday, its highest since 2007, as sticky inflation, Fed rate-hike expectations and heavy government and AI-related bond issuance pushed yields higher.

CNBC reported that the key yield, which influences mortgages, rose from just below 4.8% earlier this month. Bond yields and prices move inversely to one another.

The rapid climb above 5% showed how quickly investors' expectations have shifted toward additional tightening from the Federal Reserve in light of stubborn inflation. Fed funds futures trading showed a 64% likelihood of a rate hike in October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index showed that year-ahead inflation expectations leapt to 4.6% in September, rising from 4% in August and marking the highest reading since June.

Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, told CNBC that stubborn inflation and anticipation of more rate hikes tell only part of the story. "I think this year it has more to do with the bond issuance than the inflation story," he said.

Wizman said yields at these levels are not themselves unusual, particularly because they are not being accompanied by extreme inflation expectations or an aggressively tightening Fed. "We don't have a Federal Reserve that's tightening aggressively, so a lot of things look pretty normal. The thing that's abnormal is that we're in the midst of a very strong investment cycle," he said.

The federal government is issuing debt to finance a large deficit, while companies are borrowing heavily to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. Wizman said that combination has increased bond supply enough to put upward pressure on yields. The AI spending boom is adding another source of bond supply to compete with Treasuries.

Vanguard estimates that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Oracle issued about $132 billion of debt through July, up sharply from the roughly $35 billion annual average between 2020 and 2024. Broader AI-related debt issuance could reach $300 billion to $570 billion this year as companies across the data-center, semiconductor and utility ecosystem borrow to finance the buildout.

At the same time, higher yields can weigh down stocks by raising borrowing costs for companies and making bonds seem more attractive to income-seeking investors. Wizman said the capital-spending plans of hyperscalers and their suppliers are likely to keep bond issuance elevated through this year and into next year. "So these yields could go higher," he said.