NY Fed Study Finds AI-Adopting SMBs More Optimistic on Hiring and Revenue
New York Fed study: U.S. SMBs using AI are more optimistic on hiring and revenue, but only 31% report higher sales.
AI adopters recorded a 33 percentage point net expectation of higher employment in the next year, compared with 15 percentage points for non-adopters, according to the study. That gap is more than double. The report said positivity about AI is strongest among adopters themselves.
Only about one in two adopters, or 51%, have integrated AI into their business processes either partially or fully. The study suggested many businesses may still be experimenting with the technology rather than embedding it in specific use cases.
On jobs, initial concerns have often centered on AI replacing human workers. But 77% of surveyed businesses reported no change in their current labor costs due to AI, indicating that the technology is largely assisting existing workers rather than outright replacing them.
Financial expectations are more upbeat. Adopters are the most likely to expect healthy revenue growth, and the businesses struggling most financially may be among the most optimistic, the study found.
Expectations and actual results still differ. Fewer than one in three, or 31%, reported increased sales due to using AI. "In other words, it seems unlikely that the association between AI use and positive revenue expectations is spurious," the report concluded.
The researchers also said that "AI may be helping some small businesses overcome specific operational or technical constraints that limit revenue generation." The study offered no evidence that AI adoption alone guarantees higher sales, but it tied adoption to stronger expectations for hiring and revenue.