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TechRadar Report Ties AI-Driven Price Pressure to Supplier Shipment Halt and Possible HP Notebook FalloutAnthropic Cuts Internal Evaluations Off Live Internet After AI Agents Exploited WebsitesNeanderthal Wooden Tools Found Preserved as Stone Molds in SpainSpain Museum Unveils Cray-1 Replica Built From 30 Old Mac MinisUSGS Details Kilauea Lava Fountains as Scientists Probe What Drives ThemWarehouse robot maker Ultra Robotics raises $62M to expand OP1 Operator deployment
AI Chips & Compute

TrendForce Warns Notebook Shipments Could Fall by High Single Digits in 2027

TrendForce expects global notebook shipments to fall in 2027, with the decline possibly reaching high single digits if DRAM and CPU costs push retail prices higher.

AI News Feed · 2026-10-10 09:09

In the report released this week, TrendForce projected a low-single-digit percentage decline in global notebook shipments for 2027 as its current base case. But it said that if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated, brands may be forced to pass more of those costs to consumers. Higher retail prices could further extend replacement cycles and push the full-year shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.

TrendForce said 2026 notebook shipments were supported by improved CPU availability, early purchasing by manufacturers and replacement demand brought forward from later periods. With some purchases originally expected in the second half of 2026 and beyond already pulled forward, replacement momentum in subsequent periods is likely to weaken. As lower-cost inventories are gradually depleted, brands will face more direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM and SSD prices.

The report noted that CPU, DRAM and SSD costs accounted for 68% of the bill of materials for an unnamed mainstream notebook with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of US$900 in the third quarter of 2026. It added that if component costs keep rising next year, brands will likely have to choose between raising retail prices and risking weaker demand, absorbing the increases at the expense of gross margins, or reducing specifications and potentially making their products less competitive.

TrendForce said DRAM supply is likely to stay tight next year because of AI-related demand, while PC DRAM faces the risk of limited supply growth. It expects NAND Flash supply constraints to ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online. In 2027, brands are therefore unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications and profitability simultaneously. How much of the higher costs they pass on to consumers will be a key factor shaping demand, according to the report.

The report also said that if tariff pressures do not increase further, manufacturers could move some notebook production back to China to reduce costs. TrendForce estimates China’s share of global notebook production will rise from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2026 and could exceed 80% in 2027.