Sportsbooks Hold NFL Wagering Lead as Prediction Markets Gain Ground

The market researcher expects the NFL season to generate roughly $40 billion in U.S. wagering activity. Sportsbooks still command nearly four out of every five dollars wagered, with an estimated $31.7 billion in handle, up about 8% from last season. EKG estimates prediction markets will see the equivalent of $8.4 billion in NFL wagering activity, or a 21% share of the combined market, though trading volume is not directly comparable with sportsbook handle.

The growth is being fueled by an expansion of the total addressable market, according to EKG. Prediction markets can offer sports contracts in states such as California, Texas and Georgia, where sports betting is still illegal, or in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock business has a monopoly.

Early numbers show how quickly prediction markets are scaling. Football contract volume across selected exchanges reached 2.94 billion contracts between Sept. 1 and Sept. 14, nearly four times the comparable period last year. During kickoff week, Polymarket recorded 755,000 U.S. app downloads, ahead of Kalshi at 602,000. The app-download comparison excludes Robinhood and Coinbase because their downloads reflect much more than prediction markets.

“Prediction markets are growing the overall market — at least for now,” said Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. “We’ll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets by the time we get to the Super Bowl.”

There is not yet much evidence that prediction markets are taking substantial business from sportsbooks, EKG said. DraftKings and FanDuel, which have both launched their own prediction platforms, say there has been at most a low single-digit drag on handle growth. Rush Street Interactive has reported no discernible impact. BetMGM, which is co-owned by MGM and Entain, has reported a more meaningful effect.

For consumers, sportsbooks also offer important advantages: deeper betting menus, more polished apps and established loyalty programs. EKG expects parlays to account for more than 40% of regulated NFL handle and potentially about 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue because of their higher margins.

Prediction platforms are copying that playbook. Piper Sandler said combination contracts, essentially prediction-market parlays, now represent the majority of Kalshi’s volume. On the latest reported day, total volume across the eight exchanges Piper tracks reached about $2.48 billion, led by Kalshi at $1.93 billion and Polymarket at $403.6 million.

The field is getting more crowded beyond Kalshi and Polymarket. Upstart competitors Novig and Underdog are working to coax football fans and their dollars onto their own platforms. Piper Sandler’s latest tally put Novig volume at $43 million, up 77% month over month, and Underdog at $26.5 million, up 80%.

Novig is trying to turn that growth into national brand recognition with its new “Just Sports” campaign starring actress and influencer Sydney Sweeney, who says she has taken an equity stake in the prediction platform. The provocative ads have drawn both enormous attention and criticism, ripping a page from the same celebrity-driven marketing playbook long used by sportsbooks.

For now, sportsbooks remain king of the hill, but the prediction markets have put them on defense. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment and customer acquisition.