Tesla Roadster Reveal on Oct. 1 Creates Options Opportunity, CNBC Pro Contributor Says

Tesla has reopened Roadster reservations and has also opened the order book in Canada and China. The deposit is $50,000: a refundable $5,000 charged to a credit card, followed by a $45,000 wire within ten days. The reservation is not final until the wire clears. Tesla says the event will put pricing, specifications and production targets on the table.

Skeptics point to the same $50,000 deposits Tesla took in 2017 and the string of missed delivery dates since then. Khouw wrote that reopening reservations two weeks before the reveal is itself a signal, arguing that a company would not ask customers to wire $50,000 for a car it expects to embarrass itself with on stage. He also noted the Cybertruck rollout proved somewhat embarrassing when the chief engineer broke the truck's windows in a demonstration meant to show they were unbreakable.

The Roadster reveal follows Tesla's Sept. 3 Cybercab launch in Austin, which disappointed some investors and drew a note from Wells Fargo that the robotaxi service faces 'execution issues.' The stock has since recovered. Khouw wrote that the Cybercab hangover is overdone, saying driverless ride-hailing will be part of transportation and the key question is which companies can build autonomous vehicles by the hundreds of thousands or millions at viable unit economics. He added that few companies have shown they can design, manufacture and distribute complex consumer hardware at that scale, and Tesla is one of them.

Khouw wrote that Tesla's fairest criticism is valuation, not execution of new automotive technologies, though he acknowledged the company tends to run past ambitious deadlines. Tesla trades at 213 times forward earnings, compared with 22 times for Uber and 7 times for Ford, according to the article. Khouw said the market has never valued Tesla conventionally because it has repeatedly done what most said could not be done, including mass-market EVs at a profit, a charging network others use, grid-scale storage and, at SpaceX, reusable rockets. He argued the better frame is a technology company with rare engineering and manufacturing skill, making the premium look more like a price on optionality in autonomy, robotics and energy.

With a Semi event on Sept. 24, the Roadster reveal on Oct. 1 and third-quarter deliveries due right after, one-month options might be expected to be bid up, but Khouw wrote they are not. Thirty-day implied volatility sits around 41%, which he called high in absolute terms for a megacap but near the bottom of Tesla's range over the past year. For a stock that routinely moves 5% on a headline, he called that a reasonable price for upside exposure.

Rather than buy calls outright, Khouw wrote he would use a call spread to cut the premium outlay and sensitivity to a volatility crush after the event. He pointed to the Oct. 30 380/440 call spread, which he wrote covers the Roadster reveal, the delivery report and the upcoming earnings. The article disclosed that Tidal owns or holds all securities mentioned. It also stated that opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are solely their own and do not reflect those of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates.