Anthropic Becomes Last Major IPO Hope for 2026 as AI Listings Slip

Anthropic confidentially filed a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in early June, according to CNBC. Kalshi’s market asks traders whether companies will officially announce an IPO in 2026; the platform resolves the question using an SEC declaration that a company’s S-1 is effective, an IPO pricing or an exchange assigning a ticker, with various news outlets as sources.

Among the 23 companies Kalshi lists that remain open to trade, only Anthropic carries greater than 50% odds. Fintech company Plaid, reportedly valued at $8 billion in the private market, now has 10% odds, down from 50% in January. Human resources and payroll platform Deel has 3% odds, after 50-50 odds as recently as February. Cloud and artificial intelligence platform Databricks has 1% odds, after more than 50% in January.

OpenAI, Anthropic’s chief rival, has just 3% odds of going public after CEO Sam Altman said last month it did not make sense to go public amid concerns over AI safety. Kalshi traders give OpenAI 50-50 odds of making an official IPO announcement by June 2027.

IPO postponements across sectors have grown in recent weeks. While IPO proceeds this year are up sharply, driven by megacap debuts, notably SpaceX in June, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% compared with 2025, according to Renaissance Capital.

Investors have been betting on major AI companies and companies contributing to the AI buildout to move from private to public markets as they seek greater capital pools to finance development. Those growth assumptions were called into question last week when Anthropic revealed its revenue totaled $16.8 billion in the third quarter, weaker quarter-over-quarter growth than in past periods.

“More questions than answers emerged around the reasons for revenue growth deceleration in September and whether Anthropic can grow revenue at the rate the market is expecting given dynamics such as [large language model] pricing pressure,” 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson wrote on Sunday. “At the end of the day, the revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T vs the prior expectation of at least $2T was viewed as disappointing and added fuel to the fire for the AI-related equities that were already under pressure.”

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