Aurora CFO Defends 2030 Goal of 30,000 Driverless Trucks as Shares Slide

CFO David Maday told TechCrunch in a recent interview that the 30,000-truck goal is not as far-fetched as it sounds. "While 30,000 kind of feels like a lot — and it does in the autonomy space for sure — in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it's kind of pretty small," he said, adding that the four major truck manufacturers produce 250,000 to 300,000 new trucks a year. "I don't think it's aspirational," he added. "I think we can do it."

According to Maday, the big unlock for Aurora begins in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later. Aurora currently runs a transportation-as-a-service business, a proof-of-concept model it plans to limit to about 500 trucks. It owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges customers including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane and Werner about $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge. That is roughly the same as other carriers' typical pricing.

The more significant shift is set to begin next year, when Aurora moves to a driver-as-a-service model. Under that model, customers will buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee for the autonomous technology, which the company expects to be about $0.85. Customers will own and maintain the trucks, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its accompanying hardware. Moving the trucks off Aurora's balance sheet is critical if the company wants to scale, and it is likely what investors are watching. Aurora said it expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with about 500 trucks on the road.

A further leap is expected at the end of 2027 with Aurora's third-generation hardware, the sensors, computers and other equipment that allow its trucks to drive themselves. The hardware will be mass-produced by Aurora's partner Aumovio, formerly known as Continental. Aumovio is not only engineering and manufacturing the hardware kit; it is also financing it for Aurora, easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company, and will service and repair the kits for customers.

Aurora plans to expand its operations at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., Maday said. "By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that's why you see our gross margin starting to take off," he said. "Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine." Maday confirmed that Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market.