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Research

Fossil-fuel supercharging makes El Niño events stronger, study finds

A new study says climate change is intensifying El Niño events like the 'Godzilla' El Niño now forming, with global impacts on weather and food security.

AI News Feed · 2026-08-28 07:58

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific warm, triggering weather disruptions worldwide. The current event, expected to peak later this year, has been informally dubbed "Godzilla" and could be the strongest in living memory.

The research, published in Science and led by Julia Cole of the University of Michigan, analyzed coral fossils from the Galápagos Islands dating back 1,000 years. The fossil composition provided a record of past sea surface temperatures, allowing scientists to compare recent El Niño activity with preindustrial times.

The team found that while El Niño variability remained fairly stable for centuries, it shifted dramatically after mass industrialization began in the late 19th century, and has become "a lot more extreme" in the past 40 years. El Niño variability is now about 37% higher than in preindustrial times, and the pattern "looks like nothing in the previous 1,000 years," Cole said.

"Our findings suggest El Niño can supercharge global warming but also global warming can supercharge El Niño – that is what we are seeing," Cole told The Guardian. "We are seeing a shift where El Niño doesn't look like what it did prior to industrial times. That is bad news for climate hazards and for people."

Strong El Niño events have already contributed to global temperature records in 1998, 2016, and 2024, and the current event is set to push next year to likely the hottest on record, the report said.

The study also confirms that climate change is making these events more common and more severe. Co-author Samantha Stevenson-Karl of the University of California, Santa Barbara, said the findings provide "a strong indication that climate change may already be amplifying El Niño events," meaning truly large events like the one brewing now might become more frequent.

The consequences are far-reaching. As El Niño weakens trade winds, parts of South America and the southern United States often see heavier rainfall and floods, while India's monsoon weakens and countries such as Indonesia and Australia face drier conditions and drought. A recent forecast estimated that the growing El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger before the end of next year due to effects on food production.

Cole said the new understanding should drive adaptation measures, such as food stockpiling, but also deeper action. "We need to get away from greenhouse gas-producing technologies as quickly as possible," she said.