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GF Securities Says Apple Will Be Only Major Smartphone Maker to Grow in 2026, but Flags iPhone 18 Pro and Duo Constraints

GF Securities: Apple alone to grow smartphone shipments in 2026; iPhone 18 Pro and Duo face constraints.

AI News Feed · 2026-10-17 07:13

The analysts project Apple will ship 257 million units in 2026, up 4% year over year. That would keep Apple ahead of Samsung, which is expected to ship 241 million smartphones, essentially unchanged from 2025. Apple also topped the rankings in 2024 and 2025, according to the note. Apple’s share of global smartphone shipments is projected to climb to 24% in 2026, compared with 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024.

The broader market is not expected to follow. The report projects total smartphone shipments will fall 14.2% to 1.08 billion units in 2026. It describes 2026-2027 as 'one of the most challenging periods for the industry,' driven primarily by sharply higher memory prices, which have already pushed original equipment manufacturers to reduce shipments and raise device prices.

For Apple’s newest products, the note says the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received a relatively lukewarm reception. Pu and Huang partly attribute that to competition from the iPhone Duo and criticism of the Pro models’ weight. They also cite production constraints affecting both the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro lineup.

Due to hinge constraints, the analysts lowered their iPhone Duo EMS build plan from 7 million to 6 million units in 2026. They also cut their iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max build plan to 72 million units because of constraints associated with the adjustable-aperture camera.

The iPhone Duo went up for pre-order earlier on the day of the report and was already showing delivery estimates stretching into late January in the United States and even further in other countries.

GF Securities maintained a 'Hold' rating on Apple stock with a price target of $369. Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43% on the day, making it the only major tech stock to finish in the green amid the ongoing sector-wide sell-off.