Mark Gurman Predicts Most iPhones Will Be Foldable Within a Decade
Mark Gurman predicts most new phone sales will be foldable within a decade, with Apple possibly selling premium and budget foldable iPhones.
Gurman wrote in his Power On newsletter: "My prediction is that, within a decade, foldables will make up the majority of new phone sales. Users will increasingly see the benefits of having a larger display in their pocket and a device that can replace a laptop or tablet for many tasks. Foldables could become the do-it-all computing products of the future." He suggested Apple could move both up and down the price ladder with future foldables. He pointed to a possible iPhone Duo Max with a larger display and a bigger price tag, and also raised the possibility of an iPhone SE in the company's future. He argued that in that kind of timescale, even budget devices like the iPhone SE could go foldable as manufacturing costs fall.
Before the launch of the iPhone Duo, foldables were an incredibly niche product, accounting for just 2% of the global smartphone market. Despite its high price tag, the iPhone Duo is expected to change this significantly over the course of the next 12 months. Counterpoint Research predicted last week that the foldable market will grow 24% in the remainder of this year and a further 37% next year. The firm also predicted that Apple will take a 40% market share within that timescale, which could make it the leading player in the market.
9to5Mac noted that a decade is an extremely long time in technology, so almost anything could happen within that kind of timescale. It said it is well within the bounds of possibility that the foldable format could become ubiquitous thanks to falling manufacturing costs. A likely next step, according to the report, is to find a way to embed Face ID into the device. That is technically easier than the selfie camera sitting beneath the interior display, but the challenge is to manage the depth of the Face ID array on the outer screen without making the device any thicker.
9to5Mac also asked readers what they thought of Gurman's prediction and invited them to take a poll and share their thoughts in the comments.