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Musk sets 5 million annual Tesla delivery goal for 2030 as sales decline

Musk sets a 5 million Tesla delivery goal for 2030; The Verge says the math is daunting after two years of declines.

AI News Feed · 2026-10-23 04:01

“We were aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030,” Musk said on the call, according to The Verge. “And I think we’ve got a good shot of achieving that goal.” The Verge noted that Musk said in 2020 that Tesla would sell 20 million cars annually by 2030, so the new figure is a downgrade from his earlier projection.

The report said Tesla’s deliveries rose from 936,172 in 2021 to 1,313,851 in 2022 and peaked at 1,808,581 in 2023. They then fell to 1,789,226 in 2024 and 1,636,129 in 2025, the first and second consecutive annual declines. So far in 2026, Tesla has sold 1,324,681 vehicles, according to the report, and would need an additional 311,448 deliveries in the fourth quarter to avoid a third straight annual decline. Analysts expect 1.82 million deliveries for the full year, The Verge reported.

The Verge calculated that going from 1,636,129 deliveries in 2025 to 5 million in 2030 would require a compound annual growth rate of about 25%. Musk has argued that Tesla’s shift from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a leader in AI and robotics can support that growth. A central part of the plan is the Cybercab and Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet. During the earnings call, Tesla’s vice president for autonomy, Ashok Elluswamy, claimed the company could launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving in the second quarter of 2027, and vice president for vehicle engineering Lars Moravy said Tesla would try to deliver the first steering-wheel- and pedal-less Cybercabs to customers, likely fleet owners, before the end of the year, according to the report.

The Verge reported that selling Cybercabs to fleet owners could create a new sales channel beyond individual retail buyers, which might make 5 million vehicles less of a reach. But the report also said Tesla’s current lineup has structural weaknesses: more than 96% of the company’s sales depend on just two vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y. The report said that after back-to-back years of falling sales, banking on unproven robotaxis instead of an affordable EV makes Musk’s goal look practically impossible.

The report also said Musk’s 5 million target came amid other predictions on the call, including that Tesla’s Terafab chip factory “will be the most valuable building in the world” and that Tesla “will end up being a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely.”