PC Shipments Drop 20.1% in Q3 2026, the Worst Third Quarter IDC Has Recorded

The three largest PC makers, Lenovo, Dell and HP, each saw shipments fall by more than 20% year over year. Volumes were also down 9.1% from the previous quarter, a reversal of the usual pattern in which third-quarter shipments outpace the second quarter as vendors roll out new products ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Jitesh Ubrani, a director at IDC, told PCMag in an email that steeper declines have occurred in other quarters in recent years, citing 2022Q4 at minus 28.2% and 2023Q1 at minus 28.7%, both of which followed pandemic-era highs.

The downturn had been anticipated. IDC and other research firms have warned that an ongoing AI-driven memory shortage threatens to erode demand for PCs and phones as memory and storage costs climb. In a report on IDC's preliminary estimates for the quarter, Ubrani attributed the distorted seasonality to early buying rather than to a sudden collapse in interest. "What we're seeing is the result of the strong first half pull-in," he said. "Vendors and channels loaded up on inventory early in the year to get ahead of [memory-related] price hikes, and that has thrown off the usual seasonality, where Q3 is typically larger than Q2."

Ubrani added that vendors and retailers may resort to discounts to stir interest and clear stock already on hand. "Channels are now worried about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand," he said. "That could translate into promotions and some short-term relief for consumers, but we don't expect pricing anywhere near what it was a year ago. Prices will remain elevated."