Research finds 94% of NSW black summer homes lost within 100m of vegetation

The study, published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, examined homes lost across NSW. More than 3,000 homes were lost across Australia during the unprecedented fires six years ago, which took 33 lives and killed or displaced almost 3 billion native animals.

The 100-metre buffer is a key part of widely used maps of bushfire-prone land that firefighters use to plan local outreach and planning authorities use to assess how bushfire-resistant new homes and renovations should be.

Associate professor Owen Price, a bushfire risk expert at the University of Wollongong who led the research, said the findings showed a key aspect of the method to identify buildings at risk was 'more or less spot on'. 'That's reassuring. Distance to vegetation is really important and that 100 metre rule that they apply is pretty good,' he said.

The research also examined fire danger ratings — an index combining temperature, wind, humidity and fuel dryness — on the days each home was lost. Price said that when the ratings, technically known as the Forest Fire Danger Index, reached extreme or catastrophic conditions, 'houses further away [than 100 metres] were burning'. 'That's a warning sign, because we know that index is going to get worse [from global heating]. We know the direction of travel,' he said.

Price said wildfire researchers were alarmed by the increasing number of fires around the world hitting and moving through urban areas, including the 2025 Los Angeles Eaton fire that killed 19 people and destroyed or damaged thousands of homes and businesses. Part of his research aimed to understand whether similar events could be replicated in Australia. 'Being very close to another house [that is on fire] is another risk factor, which is why it's important we stop houses from burning,' he said. The research warned that 'current regulation may become less useful over time' as the climate crisis increased the risk of homes being lost.

Melissa O'Halloran, who is responsible for bushfire planning work at the NSW Rural Fire Service, said the research showed that 'houses in that [bushfire prone] area should be built to a higher construction standard'. 'The conditions in 2019 were extreme and outside what we would usually prepare for and, even under those conditions, our policy has stood up pretty well,' she said. 'This reinforces why we want people to have bushfire protection measures in place.'

O'Halloran said investigations after previous fires had shown that not all residents knew they were living in a bushfire-prone area. Homes within bushfire-prone land in the state are allowed to remove trees within 10 metres of a house and clear understory within 50 metres. She said the service was reviewing its main bushfire protection policy and would consider increasing climate risk. 'We're seeing the impacts of climate change already. It isn't just temperatures, it's also about how quickly the landscape dries out, as well as extreme pyroconvective fires,' she said.

Inspector James Morris, also of the NSW Rural Fire Service, said there was already heightened risk this year for fires in northern parts of the state, the central west and the far south coast. 'They've had high rainfall, and it does not take long for those fuels to dry out. It is important residents do their bit and prepare,' he said. 'We could be in for a challenging fire season.'