South Korea Projects Record 2026 Tax Revenue on Chip Boom; Seoul Stocks Open Higher
South Korea's tax revenue is estimated to reach a record 478.6 trillion won in 2026 on a semiconductor boom, the finance ministry said, as Seoul stocks opened higher on U.S. chip gains despite high Treasury yields.
The ministry's revised estimate is 104.7 trillion won higher than last year's 373.9 trillion won and above the previous record of 395.9 trillion won in 2022. It is 88.4 trillion won higher than the original projection used to draw up the 2026 budget.
"Tax revenue has far exceeded the initial estimate due to the semiconductor boom and the bullish stock market, both of which were difficult to predict," a finance ministry official said. "Operating profits in the chip industry were around 70 to 80 percent higher than originally projected," the official added.
Corporate tax revenue is expected to reach 136.4 trillion won this year, up 51.8 trillion won from 2025, the ministry said. The combined operating profit of Samsung Electronics Co. and SK hynix Inc. for this year is currently projected by the market at around 638 trillion won, compared with 339 trillion won forecast in February.
Income tax revenue is projected at 152.4 trillion won, up from the initial forecast of 132 trillion won, driven by higher bonus payments at semiconductor and financial companies. Securities transaction tax revenue is expected to reach 12.4 trillion won, compared with the original estimate of 5.4 trillion won, buoyed by the bullish stock market in the first half of this year.
Based on the revised estimates, experts said more than 200 trillion won could be available for the Future Fund, which the government plans to launch next year to channel an unprecedented tax revenue windfall from the semiconductor boom into sustainable economic growth. The calculation is based on projected surplus tax revenue of 56.2 trillion won, on top of windfall revenue of 162.3 trillion won.
The bill on the Future Fund submitted to the National Assembly stipulates surplus revenue can be transferred to the fund, a finance ministry official said, noting relevant ministries are discussing how to use the surplus. South Korea earlier introduced the concept of windfall revenue, referring to tax revenue exceeding its long-term trend due to structural economic changes or significant economic fluctuations, such as an industrial supercycle. The government said the concept differs from surplus tax revenue, which refers to tax receipts exceeding official forecasts due to unexpected short-term economic fluctuations or forecasting errors.
On the stock market, the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or KOSPI, gained 72.66 points, or 1.06 percent, to 6,943.47 at the opening bell. As of 9:15 a.m., it had extended gains to 6,951.27, up 80.46 points, or 1.17 percent. Overnight, U.S. stocks ended slightly lower despite a decline in oil prices, as persistently high Treasury yields continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.17 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26 percent, and the Nasdaq composite ticked down 0.09 percent.
Semiconductor shares, however, bucked the broader weakness. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.32 percent, providing a positive cue for South Korean chip giants. Market bellwether Samsung Electronics rose 1.1 percent, while SK hynix gained 2.32 percent. SK Square, the parent company of SK hynix, added 2.33 percent, while Samsung Electro-Mechanics increased 1.51 percent. The Korean won was trading at 1,351 won against the U.S. dollar, up 3 won from the close of the previous stock trading session.