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Research

Study: Public in England and Wales wrongly think most killers are minority ethnic

A King's College London study finds people in England and Wales vastly overestimate the share of minority ethnic and foreign national offenders, with Reform voters furthest from reality.

AI News Feed · 2026-08-17 14:59

Reform voters were furthest from the truth, believing 70% of killers were from ethnic minorities – 10 percentage points more than voters of any other party. The survey also showed that people thought foreign national offenders made up 25% of the prison population, when the real figure is 12%, and overestimated the proportion of sexual offences committed by foreigners, at 30% versus the actual 15%. Reform voters again had the most skewed perceptions, with half believing foreign nationals committed 50% of sexual offences, 20 percentage points higher than Conservative supporters.

Prof Bobby Duffy, director of King's College London's Policy Institute, said misperceptions are driven by both "how we think and what we're told." He explained that people inflate the scale of an issue if they are concerned about it, and that Reform supporters' higher concern about immigration and diversity "will mean they're more likely to give attention and weight to things they see that fit with that view, including crimes being committed by those groups."

The study also found that 52% of respondents thought ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently for crimes, with 29% believing they received more lenient sentences and 23% thinking they were sentenced more harshly. Duffy said such views matter for trust in the system, especially "when it's not justified by the reality," as it may lead to actions that are "not necessary or effective."

The survey found that respondents' views aligned more with their age group than their ethnicity. For example, Gen Z estimated the white share of homicide convictions at 58%, while baby boomers put it at 35%, but white and non-white respondents gave almost identical answers.

People also overestimated crime victimization. The public's median guess was that 27% had personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025, far above the actual 9.7%. Duffy said the findings indicate that "our misperceptions are more of a general emotional reaction than careful study of the facts."