Ukraine’s Surprise Robot Offensive in Donbas Reverses Russian Gains, Experts Say
A Ukrainian robot offensive in eastern Donbas, dubbed Operation Vivaldi, has retaken 176 square kilometers and reversed more than a year of Russian gains, security experts say, dealing a strategic blow to Vladimir Putin’s territorial aims.
As part of the operation, Ukraine’s Third Army Corps deployed large bomber drones and remote-controlled robots behind enemy lines around Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast, security experts told CNBC, apparently catching Russian forces off guard. Russian forces had spent the past 12 months trying to encircle Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt cities that make up the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the region.
Ukrainian Brigadier-General Andrii Biletskyi said on Sept. 28 that the third phase of Operation Vivaldi liberated an additional 51 square kilometers, taking the total area of territory retaken to 176 square kilometers. He added that the latest phase inflicted over 2,000 Russian losses and saw over 250 Russian soldiers taken prisoner.
Patrick Bolder, a defense expert and strategic advisor at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, described the offensive as a “big bloody nose” to Putin’s minimal war aim of seizing Ukraine’s Donbas region. He said Ukrainian forces kept details of the operation secret, ran disinformation campaigns against Russia and orchestrated a months-long air operation to disrupt logistical supplies to the frontline. Ukrainian forces then secured control of the air in the Lyman area, denying Russia the use of its drones, Bolder said, before deploying their own drones to drop unmanned ground vehicles behind enemy lines to attack Russian troops from behind without endangering Ukrainian personnel. “They put this together masterly,” Bolder said. For the Kremlin, he added, “gaining the Donbas is very far away at the moment because the Ukrainians have come into better defendable positions now — which will make it harder for the Russians to try to do this again.”
A spokesperson for Russia’s Embassy in London was not available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Friday.
Security experts made clear that Ukraine’s robot offensive should not be seen as a decisive breakthrough. It does, however, send “a powerful message to Moscow and to Kyiv’s partners that the highly innovative Ukrainian military remains capable of defeating Russia on the battlefield,” according to David Kirichenko, an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a U.K.-based national security think tank.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lauded the success of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps when he met with soldiers carrying out the counteroffensive, describing the operation as “important in many ways” for Ukraine’s defense overall, and the Donbas region especially. In a social media post on Sept. 30, Zelenskyy said, “One particularly promising area now is replacing our warriors with ground robotic systems wherever possible.” He added, “During Vivaldi, this capability allowed us to accomplish many things. We will scale it up so that, more and more often, a drone rather than a warrior carries out the most dangerous tasks at the front.”
Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s capital and major cities in recent days, targeting data centers, communications and energy infrastructure as it seeks to disrupt the flow of information and force power cuts ahead of winter. Ukrainian officials have expressed deep concern over the attacks, saying there is an urgent need for the country to be able to rapidly respond to missile and drone threats. Ukraine, for its part, has sought to raise the cost of Russia’s more than four-and-a-half-year war against it, targeting the country’s oil refineries and logistics hubs.
Robotic systems have become one of the key factors in Ukraine’s counter-offensive operations, according to Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think tank. “Their use has not only reduced the risks to personnel but has also changed the very logic of combat: where previously dozens or hundreds of soldiers were required, remotely controlled platforms are increasingly being deployed,” Kuzan told CNBC by email. He said the experience of Operation Vivaldi demonstrated that the systematic replacement of human personnel with robots is changing the paradigm of modern warfare, enabling tasks to be carried out with minimal personnel losses. Kuzan said Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Lyman area had been aimed at seizing the initiative on the battlefield, which would ultimately force the Russian army to abandon the objectives set by its political leadership.